17 Sept · 18:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TM
🇨🇿Tomas Molin
ELO 1525
FormLWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Molin
KB
🇨🇿Karel Baros
ELO 1510
FormLLWWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Baros🌟Baros covers set handicap as underdog 67% (36)
Fair odds · Molin
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H7-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.