17 Sept · 19:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DB
🇨🇿David Bochnak
ELO 1744
FormLLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Cerny
MC
🇨🇿Martin Cerny
ELO 1757
FormWLLLL
49%
51%
🌟Bochnak covers set handicap as underdog 68% (50)
Fair odds · Cerny
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H58-61
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.