17 Sept · 17:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MD
🇨🇿Milan Dvorak
ELO 1490
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Hendrych
JH
🇨🇿Jan Hendrych
ELO 1507
FormLLWLL
49%
51%
🌟Dvorak covers set handicap as underdog 64% (74)
Fair odds · Hendrych
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+17
H2H42-35
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.