17 Sept · 16:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TK
🇨🇿Tomas Krcil
ELO 1476
FormWWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Motacek
TM
🇨🇿Tomas Motacek
ELO 1490
FormWWWWL
49%
51%
🌟Motacek covers set handicap as favourite 69% (16)
Fair odds · Motacek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~73 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+14
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.