17 Sept · 17:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AC
🇨🇿Ales Cizek
ELO 1455
FormLWLLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Moravec
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1543
FormWWWWW
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Cizek🌟Cizek covers set handicap as underdog 65% (100)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+88
H2H11-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+88)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-4)