17 Sept · 22:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OS
🇨🇿Oldrich Stehlik
ELO 1607
FormLLLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Stehlik
TT
🇨🇿Tomas Trnka
ELO 1571
FormLLLWL
53%
47%
🌟Trnka goes over total as underdog 68% (31)
Fair odds · Stehlik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+36
H2H9-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.