18 Sept · 12:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TB
🇨🇿Tomas Bartik
ELO 1652
FormWLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Bartik
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Polak
ELO 1608
FormLLWLW
54%
46%
🌟Bartik goes over total as favourite 67% (48)
Fair odds · Bartik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+44
H2H7-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.