18 Sept · 08:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DV
🇨🇿Daniel Vitasek
ELO 1502
FormLWLLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Benes
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1561
FormWWWWW
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vitasek
Fair odds · Benes
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+59
H2H18-16
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+59)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (18-16)