18 Sept · 12:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ZC
🇨🇿Zdenek Chovancik
ELO 1447
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Chovancik
LS
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Snr
ELO 1434
FormWLWLL
51%
49%
🌟Snr covers set handicap as underdog 65% (46)
Fair odds · Chovancik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 34% · 2.97· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H2-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.