18 Sept · 08:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1553
FormWLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Benes
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1561
FormWWWWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Pawlik🌟Pawlik covers set handicap as underdog 65% (72)
Fair odds · Benes
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H11-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.