18 Sept · 09:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1553
FormWLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Pawlik
DV
🇨🇿Daniel Vitasek
ELO 1502
FormLWLLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vitasek🌟Pawlik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (74)
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+51
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.