18 Sept · 15:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SH
🇨🇿Simon Holik
ELO 1533
FormWLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Knazik
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Knazik
ELO 1562
FormLWWLW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Holik🌟Holik goes over total as underdog 70% (43)
Fair odds · Knazik
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H13-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.