18 Sept · 14:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TJ
🇨🇿Tomas Cerveny Jr
ELO 1493
FormWLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Rek
LR
🇨🇿Lukas Dominik Rek
ELO 1509
FormLLWWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Rek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 72% · 1.39· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H6-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.