18 Sept · 14:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LS
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Snr
ELO 1434
FormWLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sturma
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1440
FormLLLLL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Snr🌟Sturma rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (78)
Fair odds · Sturma
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H15-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.