18 Sept · 13:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1574
FormLLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Skvrna
JS
🇨🇿Jan Skvrna
ELO 1627
FormLWWWW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Krupnik🌟Skvrna rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (150)
Fair odds · Skvrna
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+53
H2H36-25
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.