18 Sept · 13:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Polak
ELO 1608
FormLLWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Karel
FK
🇨🇿Filip Karel
ELO 1686
FormWLLLW
44%
56%
🌟Karel rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (36)
Fair odds · Karel
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+78
H2H3-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+78)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-1)