18 Sept · 09:35 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1422
FormWLLWW
62%Win chancemodel fair 1.61Lovl
JL
🇨🇿Jan Lovl
ELO 1567
FormLWWWL
38%
62%
Fair odds · Lovl
Model 62% · 1.61vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 45%Total ~74 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
22%
2-3
17%
3-2
15%
3-1
14%
Elo Gap+145
H2H3-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+145)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-1)