18 Sept · 08:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JL
🇨🇿Jan Lovl
ELO 1567
FormLWWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Lovl
RP
🇨🇿Radim Pokorny
ELO 1493
FormLWLLL
56%
44%
🌟Pokorny stays under total as underdog 68% (40)
Fair odds · Lovl
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 35% · 2.82· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+74
H2H8-27
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+74)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)