18 Sept · 10:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VJ
🇨🇿Vaclav Hejda Jr
ELO 1588
FormWLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Jr
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vonasek
ELO 1542
FormWWLLW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Jr
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 42% · 2.40· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+46
H2H43-54
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.