18 Sept · 10:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AL
🇨🇿Ales Langer
ELO 1487
FormWWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Vonasek
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vonasek
ELO 1542
FormWWLLW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Langer🌟Vonasek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 38% (101)
Fair odds · Vonasek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 61% · 1.63· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+55
H2H40-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.