18 Sept · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DS
🇨🇿Dawid Stapor
ELO 1557
FormLWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Stepien
MS
🇨🇿Marcin Stepien
ELO 1609
FormLWWLL
46%
54%
🌟Stepien goes over total as favourite 67% (12)
Fair odds · Stepien
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 55% · 1.83· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+52
H2H83-103
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.