18 Sept · 17:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MF
🇨🇿Milan Flesar
ELO 1488
FormLWWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Flesar
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1422
FormWLLWW
55%
45%
🌟Flesar stays under total as favourite 62% (37)
Fair odds · Flesar
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 13%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+66
H2H29-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+66)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (29-11)