18 Sept · 16:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AC
🇨🇿Ales Cizek
ELO 1463
FormWLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Molin
TM
🇨🇿Tomas Molin
ELO 1486
FormLLLLL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Cizek🌟Cizek covers set handicap as underdog 65% (100)
Fair odds · Molin
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 37% · 2.71· vig 13%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+23
H2H1-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.