18 Sept · 16:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PC
🇨🇿Peter Chvojka
ELO 1447
FormWWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Chvojka
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1440
FormLLLLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sturma🌟Chvojka rarely covers set handicap as favourite 28% (47)
Fair odds · Chvojka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 60% · 1.67· vig 13%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.