18 Sept · 16:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1569
FormWWWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Moravec
TM
🇨🇿Tomas Molin
ELO 1486
FormLLLLL
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Molin
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 71% · 1.42· vig 13%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~80 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+83
H2H1-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+83)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)