18 Sept · 15:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AC
🇨🇿Ales Cizek
ELO 1463
FormWLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Baros
KB
🇨🇿Karel Baros
ELO 1515
FormLWLWL
46%
54%
🌟Cizek covers set handicap as underdog 65% (100)
Fair odds · Baros
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 47% · 2.11· vig 13%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+52
H2H1-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.