18 Sept · 11:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PG
🇨🇿Pawel Gola
ELO 1535
FormWWLLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Stepien
MS
🇨🇿Marcin Stepien
ELO 1629
FormWWLWW
42%
58%
🌟Stepien goes over total as favourite 67% (12)
Fair odds · Stepien
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 68% · 1.48· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+94
H2H143-62
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+94)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (143-62)