18 Sept · 16:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MK
🇨🇿Michal Kolbusovsky
ELO 1271
FormLLLLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Nemec
MN
🇨🇿Michal Nemec
ELO 1350
FormWWLWW
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kolbusovsky🌟Nemec rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (111)
Fair odds · Nemec
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 60% · 1.67· vig 13%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+79
H2H37-24
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+79)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (37-24)