18 Sept · 14:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇨🇿Michal Lysakowski
ELO 1663
FormWLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Skvarskyi
DS
🇨🇿Dmytro Skvarskyi
ELO 1691
FormWLLWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Skvarskyi
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 52% · 1.91· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+28
H2H11-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.