18 Sept · 13:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Marcin Stepien
ELO 1636
FormWWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Stepien
MG
🇨🇿Mateusz Galus
ELO 1599
FormLWLWL
53%
47%
🌟Stepien goes over total as favourite 67% (12)
Fair odds · Stepien
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H34-52
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.