18 Sept · 15:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇨🇿Marcin Stepien
ELO 1640
FormWWWWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Stepien
PG
🇨🇿Pawel Gola
ELO 1537
FormWLWWL
58%
42%
🌟Stepien goes over total as favourite 69% (13)
Fair odds · Stepien
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+103
H2H144-62
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+103)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (144-62)