19 Sept · 10:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MF
🇨🇿Milan Flesar
ELO 1500
FormWLWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Hons
DH
🇨🇿David Hons
ELO 1565
FormWWLWL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Hons
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+65
H2H7-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+65)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (7-3)