19 Sept · 10:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1494
FormWLLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Kral
RJ
🇨🇿Robert Jamrich
ELO 1413
FormLLLWW
57%
43%
🌟Kral goes over total as favourite 73% (78)
Fair odds · Kral
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 59% · 1.69· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~80 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+81
H2H4-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+81)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-3)