19 Sept · 13:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇨🇿Michal Brozek
ELO 1680
FormWWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Brozek
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kocab
ELO 1643
FormWLWLW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Brozek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 39% · 2.56· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H9-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.