19 Sept · 08:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1585
FormWWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Krupnik
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1533
FormLLLLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Benes🌟Krupnik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 38% (116)
Fair odds · Krupnik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 48% · 2.08· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+52
H2H41-40
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.