19 Sept · 10:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JR
🇨🇿Jan Ruzicka
ELO 1607
FormWLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Ruzicka
JL
🇨🇿Jan Lovl
ELO 1567
FormLWWWL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Ruzicka
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.97· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H16-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.