19 Sept · 12:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MO
🇨🇿Maksim Ovcharenko
ELO 1679
FormWLWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Ovcharenko
MG
🇨🇿Mateusz Galus
ELO 1608
FormWWLLW
56%
44%
Fair odds · Ovcharenko
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+71
H2H3-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+71)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-1)