19 Sept · 11:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MG
🇨🇿Mateusz Galus
ELO 1608
FormWWLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Galus
DS
🇨🇿Dawid Stapor
ELO 1530
FormLWLLL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Galus
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 52% · 1.92· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+78
H2H43-45
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+78)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)