19 Sept · 19:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KZ
🇨🇿Krzysztof Zapala
ELO 1476
FormWLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kos
PK
🇨🇿Pawel Kos
ELO 1504
FormLLLLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Kos
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+28
H2H48-45
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.