19 Sept · 18:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PK
🇨🇿Pawel Kos
ELO 1504
FormLLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Bartosz
BB
🇨🇿Bilski Bartosz
ELO 1545
FormWWLLL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Bartosz
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.02· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+41
H2H10-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.