19 Sept · 23:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JD
🇨🇿Jaroslav Dohnal
ELO 1493
FormLLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Budik
BB
🇨🇿Bohuslav Budik
ELO 1538
FormWLWLL
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dohnal🌟Budik goes over total as favourite 79% (61)
Fair odds · Budik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+45
H2H32-35
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.