20 Sept · 08:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Polak
ELO 1636
FormLLWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Polak
JR
🇨🇿Jan Ruzicka
ELO 1631
FormWWLWL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Polak
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 67% · 1.50· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.