20 Sept · 09:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Polak
ELO 1636
FormLLWWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Polak
TT
🇨🇿Tomas Trnka
ELO 1557
FormWLLLL
56%
44%
🌟Trnka goes over total as underdog 68% (34)
Fair odds · Polak
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 60% · 1.67· vig 13%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+79
H2H4-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+79)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-3)