20 Sept · 08:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PM
🇨🇿Patrik Marsalek
ELO 1519
FormWWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Marsalek
TM
🇨🇿Tomas Molin
ELO 1510
FormLWWWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Molin🌟Marsalek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (16)
Fair odds · Marsalek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 53% · 1.90· vig 13%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.