20 Sept · 13:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AL
🇨🇿Ales Langer
ELO 1481
FormWLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Sulc
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sulc
ELO 1503
FormLLLWL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Langer
Fair odds · Sulc
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+22
H2H36-31
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.