20 Sept · 12:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
FM
🇨🇿Filip Mandrysz
ELO 1474
FormWWLLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Mandrysz
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sobota
ELO 1414
FormLLLLW
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sobota
Fair odds · Mandrysz
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+60
H2H6-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-4)