21 Sept · 08:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇨🇿Ales Langer
ELO 1468
FormLLLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Vonasek
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vonasek
ELO 1558
FormLWLLW
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Langer🌟Vonasek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 38% (103)
Fair odds · Vonasek
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+90
H2H41-21
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+90)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (41-21)