21 Sept · 09:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1508
FormLWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Pawlik
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1563
FormWWLLW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Benes🌟Pawlik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (76)
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+55
H2H8-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.