21 Sept · 08:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1563
FormWWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Pawlik
IH
🇨🇿Ivan Heuman
ELO 1527
FormWLWWL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Heuman🌟Heuman covers set handicap as underdog 73% (70)
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 42% · 2.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+36
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.