21 Sept · 08:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DS
🇨🇿Dawid Stapor
ELO 1533
FormWLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Stapor
SR
🇨🇿Szymon Radlo
ELO 1526
FormWWWLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.98· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H31-30
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.